Nathan MacKinnon vs Ryan Donato
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). MacKinnon wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.7% vs Donato 45.1% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 66.6%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 64.3%
Neutral zone
Donato 52.7%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 60.2%
39.8%
60.2%
MacKinnon
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
MacKinnon
Donato
Last 7: MacKinnon 3-4 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
2
3
MacKinnon
Donato
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
MacKinnon
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (11,051)
44.4% (1,096)
+1.6%
Power Play
53.2% (1,394)
46.3% (240)
+6.9%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (499)
36.4% (11)
+6.5%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. MacKinnon is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,367).
MacKinnon shoots right. Donato is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (492).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Donato
Home
49.6% (6,342)
47.7% (708)
Away
43.9% (6,603)
41.3% (639)
By Period
MacKinnon
Donato
P1
47.4%
43.5%
P2
46.5%
45.4%
P3
45.9%
44.4%
OT
47.7%
77.8%
Final 5 min
48.9%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
46.7%
Donato
60.0%▲
50.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 09:17 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 06:01 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 06:52 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 19, 2023 | 2 | 04:10 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 3 | 03:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 1 | 10:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 1 | 15:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |