Scouting Report
Sam Bennett holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Bennett shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.9% vs Bennett 47.3% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 60.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 64.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 52.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 61.0%
61.0%
39.0%
MacKinnon
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
MacKinnon
Bennett
Last 6: MacKinnon 2-4 Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
0
2
MacKinnon
Bennett
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Bennett
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bennett
0
1
MacKinnon
Bennett
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
44.7% (1,053)
48.2% (766)
-3.5%
Power Play
36.8% (95)
45.1% (82)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
65.0% (20)
33.9% (56)
+31.1%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +31.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
MacKinnon shoots right. Bennett is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (328).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Bennett
Home
49.4% (553)
49.1% (458)
Away
40.0% (615)
44.8% (446)
By Period
MacKinnon
Bennett
P1
45.3%
47.9%
P2
42.7%
47.2%
P3
45.1%
46.4%
OT
46.2%
20.0%
Final 5 min
49.8%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Bennett
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 15:57 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 1 | 05:54 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 09:13 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 10, 2023 | 1 | 06:35 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |