Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.2% vs 45.5%). Look for Bennett on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Bennett shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.5% vs Bennett 45.9% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 50.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 62.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 54.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.8%
53.8%
46.2%
MacKinnon
Bennett
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
MacKinnon
Bennett
Last 6: MacKinnon 1-5 Bennett
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
0
3
MacKinnon
Bennett
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bennett
0
1
MacKinnon
Bennett
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Bennett
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Bennett
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (1,190)
44.7% (772)
+0.8%
Power Play
56.4% (94)
56.9% (58)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (30)
42.9% (28)
-2.9%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bennett shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
MacKinnon shoots right. Bennett is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (309).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Bennett
Home
47.8% (670)
48.5% (447)
Away
44.6% (644)
42.1% (411)
By Period
MacKinnon
Bennett
P1
45.3%
47.1%
P2
48.5%
45.8%
P3
45.0%
42.9%
OT
33.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Bennett
56.0%▲
51.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 03:52 | Neutral | Sam Bennett |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 03:40 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 08:44 | Defensive | Sam Bennett |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 08:50 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 06:46 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 06:34 | Offensive | Sam Bennett |