Nathan MacKinnon vs Sean Couturier
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sean Couturier holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Couturier shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Couturier 53.2% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 64.9%
Defensive zone
Couturier 91.2%
Neutral zone
Couturier 62.0%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 62.8%
37.2%
62.8%
MacKinnon
Couturier
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
MacKinnon
Couturier
Last 9: MacKinnon 6-3 Couturier
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
0
MacKinnon
Couturier
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
1
2
MacKinnon
Couturier
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Couturier
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Couturier
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
53.4% (758)
-3.4%
Power Play
64.9% (148)
62.9% (70)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
50.7% (227)
-16.3%
On penalty kill, Couturier has a +16.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Couturier shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Couturier is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (374).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Couturier
Home
53.3% (591)
50.7% (517)
Away
49.6% (581)
56.1% (538)
By Period
MacKinnon
Couturier
P1
49.9%
55.2%
P2
53.2%
53.0%
P3
50.8%
53.3%
OT
66.7%
42.4%
Final 5 min
56.1%
55.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 07:49 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 04:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 12:12 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 10:00 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 07:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 2 | 07:17 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 08:27 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:01 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |