Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +8.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kadri wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 47.6% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-8.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 72.4%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 72.1%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 73.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 73.0%
27.0%
73.0%
Kadri
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kadri
Stamkos
Last 6: Kadri 4-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
2
1
Kadri
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
2
1
Kadri
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (821)
56.1% (342)
-8.7%
Power Play
48.8% (86)
53.3% (92)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (13)
62.5% (8)
-24.0%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +24.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kadri is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (325).
Kadri shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Kadri
Stamkos
Home
46.6% (487)
53.4% (208)
Away
48.3% (433)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Kadri
Stamkos
P1
52.7%
55.6%
P2
50.2%
52.8%
P3
40.2%
59.1%
OT
44.4%
62.5%
Final 5 min
47.4%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
47.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:48 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 12:27 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 09:48 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 07:11 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |