Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Kadri wins 53.2% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kadri 47.2% vs Stamkos 56.5% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 72.5%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 78.7%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 77.3%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 78.0%
22.0%
78.0%
Kadri
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Kadri
Stamkos
Last 6: Kadri 4-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
2
1
Kadri
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kadri
2
1
Kadri
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kadri
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (889)
57.6% (439)
-10.7%
Power Play
48.3% (87)
58.6% (111)
-10.3%
Penalty Kill
38.5% (13)
50.0% (10)
-11.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +11.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Kadri is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Kadri shoots left. Stamkos is 59.4% vs left-shot opponents (424).
Home / Away
Kadri
Stamkos
Home
46.3% (523)
55.3% (255)
Away
47.6% (466)
59.7% (305)
By Period
Kadri
Stamkos
P1
52.6%
58.6%
P2
49.0%
54.4%
P3
39.8%
60.7%
OT
44.4%
62.5%
Final 5 min
46.7%
58.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kadri
44.0%▲
37.5%
46.9%
Stamkos
72.0%▲
61.5%
57.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 2 | 13:55 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 17:48 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 12:27 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 2 | 09:48 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 1 | 07:11 | Neutral | Nazem Kadri |