Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barkov wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 53.5% vs Dowd 51.6% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 75.6%
Defensive zone
Barkov 53.1%
Neutral zone
Barkov 66.0%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 66.5%
66.5%
33.5%
Barkov
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Barkov
Dowd
Last 6: Barkov 5-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
3
0
Barkov
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Barkov
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
1
0
Barkov
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (1,377)
51.2% (381)
+3.3%
Power Play
54.7% (340)
100.0% (2)
-45.3%
Penalty Kill
47.3% (222)
53.9% (89)
-6.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +45.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Barkov is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (717).
Barkov shoots left. Dowd is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (330).
Home / Away
Barkov
Dowd
Home
54.5% (948)
54.6% (218)
Away
52.9% (991)
49.6% (254)
By Period
Barkov
Dowd
P1
55.2%
50.6%
P2
54.2%
55.1%
P3
52.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.2%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
53.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2019 | 3 | 10:23 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Apr 1, 2019 | 3 | 01:56 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 1, 2019 | 1 | 16:30 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 19, 2018 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 19, 2018 | 1 | 18:52 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Oct 19, 2018 | 1 | 15:41 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |