Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Barkov wins 55.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.4% vs Dowd 53.3% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 77.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.6%
Neutral zone
Dowd 67.3%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Barkov
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Barkov
Dowd
Last 5: Barkov 1-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Barkov
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Barkov
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Barkov
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
57.0% (870)
55.4% (771)
+1.6%
Power Play
63.8% (210)
57.1% (7)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (172)
45.5% (165)
+2.8%
On power play, Barkov has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Barkov is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (533).
Barkov shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Barkov
Dowd
Home
59.2% (557)
58.2% (462)
Away
55.1% (695)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Barkov
Dowd
P1
56.7%
55.6%
P2
54.8%
50.5%
P3
59.7%
53.9%
OT
55.6%
75.0%
Final 5 min
59.4%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
56.9%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 18:18 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 18:11 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 14:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 03:07 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |