Scouting Report
Aleksander Barkov holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Barkov on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Barkov wins 59.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barkov 56.7% vs Dowd 48.3% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barkov 94.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.0%
Neutral zone
Barkov 66.2%
Result
Aleksander Barkov favored at 72.9%
72.9%
27.1%
Barkov
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Barkov
Dowd
Last 5: Barkov 4-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barkov
3
0
Barkov
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Barkov
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barkov
1
0
Barkov
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barkov
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
56.9% (740)
49.2% (778)
+7.7%
Power Play
63.3% (256)
58.3% (12)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (104)
44.0% (234)
+1.2%
On even strength, Barkov has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Barkov is 59.0% vs right-shot opponents (481).
Barkov shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Barkov
Dowd
Home
57.4% (540)
46.3% (492)
Away
57.1% (560)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Barkov
Dowd
P1
57.6%
49.1%
P2
56.6%
48.2%
P3
56.9%
46.9%
OT
72.2%
71.4%
Final 5 min
57.3%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barkov
44.0%▼
47.5%
57.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 07:25 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 19:39 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 1 | 06:22 | Offensive | Aleksander Barkov |