Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Newhook on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Newhook wins 44.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Newhook 47.1% vs Dowd 48.3% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Newhook 77.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 95.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 73.1%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 62.9%
37.1%
62.9%
Newhook
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Newhook
Dowd
Last 5: Newhook 4-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Newhook
1
0
Newhook
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Newhook
3
1
Newhook
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Newhook
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (419)
49.2% (778)
-4.3%
Power Play
57.7% (71)
58.3% (12)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (2)
44.0% (234)
-44.0%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +44.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Newhook is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Newhook shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Newhook
Dowd
Home
45.1% (246)
46.3% (492)
Away
48.0% (246)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Newhook
Dowd
P1
44.7%
49.1%
P2
49.7%
48.2%
P3
43.9%
46.9%
OT
66.7%
71.4%
Final 5 min
56.1%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Newhook
40.0%▬
40.0%
46.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 17:33 | Offensive | Alex Newhook |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 19:58 | Neutral | Alex Newhook |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 19:31 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 15:53 | Neutral | Alex Newhook |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 02:36 | Neutral | Alex Newhook |