Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Lazar on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Lazar wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lazar 49.2% vs Dowd 50.7% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 15-15 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Lazar 80.5%
Defensive zone
Dowd 71.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 50.5%
Result
Curtis Lazar favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Lazar
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
15
(30 meetings)
15
15
Lazar
Dowd
Last 10: Lazar 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lazar
7
3
Lazar
Dowd
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
5
Lazar
Dowd
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
6
7
Lazar
Dowd
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lazar
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
50.2% (2,658)
52.4% (6,005)
-2.2%
Power Play
52.3% (65)
56.1% (164)
-3.8%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (415)
44.1% (1,635)
-2.2%
On power play, Dowd has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Lazar is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (857).
Lazar shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,674).
Home / Away
Lazar
Dowd
Home
50.1% (1,542)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
48.2% (1,596)
49.6% (3,908)
By Period
Lazar
Dowd
P1
48.9%
51.6%
P2
48.9%
50.5%
P3
49.5%
50.3%
OT
56.5%
45.9%
Final 5 min
49.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lazar
74.0%▲
64.0%
49.1%
Dowd
56.0%▲
48.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 12:33 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 09:15 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 06:01 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 11:20 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 01:03 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 01:17 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Nov 10, 2023 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| May 11, 2021 | 3 | 18:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| May 11, 2021 | 2 | 19:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| May 11, 2021 | 2 | 10:11 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 18, 2021 | 3 | 03:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 18, 2021 | 1 | 19:50 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 3 | 18:18 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 2 | 01:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 9, 2020 | 3 | 14:00 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 9, 2020 | 3 | 04:57 | Neutral | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 9, 2020 | 3 | 02:17 | Defensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 9, 2020 | 2 | 07:16 | Offensive | Curtis Lazar |
| Mar 9, 2020 | 2 | 02:26 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |