Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings). Drouin wins 44.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Drouin 44.5% vs Dowd 50.7% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 14-12 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Drouin 84.7%
Defensive zone
Drouin 52.3%
Neutral zone
Drouin 64.2%
Result
Jonathan Drouin favored at 65.3%
65.3%
34.7%
Drouin
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
14
(26 meetings)
12
14
Drouin
Dowd
Last 10: Drouin 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Drouin
7
2
Drouin
Dowd
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
10
Drouin
Dowd
13 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Drouin
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Drouin
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (1,824)
52.4% (6,009)
-8.9%
Power Play
48.3% (387)
56.1% (164)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
39.1% (23)
44.1% (1,635)
-5.0%
On even strength, Dowd has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Drouin is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (849).
Drouin shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Drouin
Dowd
Home
44.0% (1,041)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
44.5% (1,193)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Drouin
Dowd
P1
45.9%
51.7%
P2
42.0%
50.4%
P3
45.0%
50.3%
OT
47.1%
45.9%
Final 5 min
42.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Drouin
44.0%▼
49.5%
44.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 06:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 06:47 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 19:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 3 | 13:01 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 2 | 08:52 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 6, 2023 | 1 | 02:19 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 07:57 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 1 | 18:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 2 | 02:44 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 24, 2021 | 1 | 02:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 19:16 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 14:18 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 3 | 10:50 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 09:33 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 2 | 01:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2018 | 1 | 06:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 3 | 09:45 | Offensive | Jonathan Drouin |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 2 | 17:39 | Neutral | Jonathan Drouin |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 2 | 15:54 | Defensive | Jonathan Drouin |