Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Norris wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 53.4% vs Dowd 49.9% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Norris leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Norris 91.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 65.0%
Neutral zone
Norris 64.2%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Norris
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Norris
Dowd
Last 10: Norris 7-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Norris
2
0
Norris
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Norris
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
3
1
Norris
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (560)
52.2% (835)
+1.4%
Power Play
56.0% (109)
60.0% (10)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
53.1% (98)
44.0% (350)
+9.1%
On penalty kill, Norris has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Norris is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Norris shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Norris
Dowd
Home
53.6% (373)
51.5% (619)
Away
54.1% (394)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Norris
Dowd
P1
61.8%
51.7%
P2
51.7%
51.6%
P3
49.8%
47.0%
OT
27.3%
22.2%
Final 5 min
55.7%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
53.8%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 18:39 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2 | 14:11 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 2 | 11:19 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 19:29 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 30, 2025 | OT | 01:19 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |