Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carlsson wins 41.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carlsson 42.4% vs Dowd 49.9% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carlsson 96.2%
Defensive zone
Carlsson 63.4%
Neutral zone
Carlsson 80.4%
Result
Leo Carlsson favored at 70.2%
70.2%
29.8%
Carlsson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Carlsson
Dowd
Last 5: Carlsson 0-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
3
Carlsson
Dowd
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Carlsson
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carlsson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
41.8% (648)
52.2% (835)
-10.4%
Power Play
37.3% (51)
60.0% (10)
-22.7%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (31)
44.0% (350)
-5.3%
On power play, Dowd has a +22.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Carlsson is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Carlsson shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Carlsson
Dowd
Home
44.5% (362)
51.5% (619)
Away
38.3% (368)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Carlsson
Dowd
P1
46.3%
51.7%
P2
35.1%
51.6%
P3
43.9%
47.0%
OT
33.3%
22.2%
Final 5 min
43.9%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carlsson
38.0%▼
39.5%
41.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 01:10 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 19:01 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 05:20 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |