Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 49.9%). Jankowski wins 42.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Jankowski 50.5% vs Dowd 49.9% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Jankowski 73.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 83.4%
Neutral zone
Dowd 52.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Jankowski
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Jankowski
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Jankowski
2
0
Jankowski
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Jankowski
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Jankowski
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Jankowski
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (347)
52.2% (835)
-0.9%
Power Play
72.7% (11)
60.0% (10)
+12.7%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (75)
44.0% (350)
+0.0%
On power play, Jankowski has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Jankowski is 42.9% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Jankowski shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Jankowski
Dowd
Home
46.8% (188)
51.5% (619)
Away
53.5% (245)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Jankowski
Dowd
P1
51.6%
51.7%
P2
49.3%
51.6%
P3
50.9%
47.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Jankowski
58.0%▲
52.0%
50.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 14:17 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 05:24 | Offensive | Mark Jankowski |