Scouting Report
Mitchell Stephens holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stephens wins 59.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stephens 52.0% vs Dowd 49.8% (+2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dowd 52.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 51.2%
Neutral zone
Dowd 54.6%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 54.1%
45.9%
54.1%
Stephens
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Stephens
Dowd
Last 5: Stephens 2-3 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stephens
1
0
Stephens
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Stephens
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stephens
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (296)
50.7% (379)
+3.7%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
64.3% (14)
-35.7%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (52)
46.5% (157)
-0.3%
On power play, Dowd has a +35.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Stephens is 59.0% vs right-shot opponents (105).
Stephens shoots right. Dowd is 50.6% vs right-shot opponents (170).
Home / Away
Stephens
Dowd
Home
54.8% (177)
53.7% (244)
Away
50.3% (179)
46.6% (307)
By Period
Stephens
Dowd
P1
55.4%
53.6%
P2
50.4%
44.1%
P3
52.6%
51.9%
Final 5 min
48.3%
50.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stephens
42.0%▼
52.5%
52.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 11:53 | Offensive | Mitchell Stephens |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 19:21 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 3 | 01:58 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 2 | 05:45 | Neutral | Mitchell Stephens |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |