Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Frost wins 53.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.5% vs Dowd 48.3% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 93.9%
Defensive zone
Dowd 90.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 59.0%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 86.9%
86.9%
13.1%
Frost
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Frost
Dowd
Last 5: Frost 4-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
3
1
Frost
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
1
0
Frost
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (704)
49.2% (778)
-0.6%
Power Play
55.7% (115)
58.3% (12)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
44.0% (234)
-19.0%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Frost is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Frost shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Frost
Dowd
Home
49.9% (399)
46.3% (492)
Away
49.1% (424)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Frost
Dowd
P1
51.2%
49.1%
P2
53.9%
48.2%
P3
42.7%
46.9%
OT
40.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
50.0%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 12:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 14, 2023 | OT | 04:13 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 16:36 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:08 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |