Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.3% vs 50.7%). Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (95% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.3% vs Dowd 50.7% (-0.4%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 27-15 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 82.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 56.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 51.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 64.2%
64.2%
35.8%
Frost
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
15
(42 meetings)
27
15
Frost
Dowd
Last 10: Frost 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
20
1
Frost
Dowd
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
9
Frost
Dowd
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Frost
Dowd
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (3,598)
52.4% (6,009)
-3.0%
Power Play
55.5% (625)
56.1% (164)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
44.1% (1,635)
+8.7%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Frost is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,477).
Frost shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Frost
Dowd
Home
51.0% (2,047)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Frost
Dowd
P1
50.8%
51.7%
P2
51.1%
50.4%
P3
48.5%
50.3%
OT
66.7%
45.9%
Final 5 min
48.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 17:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:16 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:54 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:44 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 2 | 10:48 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 23, 2024 | 1 | 06:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 15:05 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 3 | 07:56 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 07:42 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 2 | 07:37 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 13:34 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 22, 2024 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 12:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 14, 2023 | OT | 04:13 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 16:36 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 2 | 16:06 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |