Scouting Report
Patrice Bergeron holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Bergeron on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Dowd wins 53.1% vs right-shot opponents — Bergeron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 53.3% vs Bergeron 61.2% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Bergeron leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Dowd 68.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 92.9%
Neutral zone
Dowd 76.4%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 78.7%
78.7%
21.3%
Dowd
Bergeron
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
13
(19 meetings)
6
13
Dowd
Bergeron
Last 10: Dowd 4-6 Bergeron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
1
4
Dowd
Bergeron
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bergeron
2
3
Dowd
Bergeron
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bergeron
3
6
Dowd
Bergeron
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Bergeron
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (771)
63.8% (1,102)
-8.4%
Power Play
57.1% (7)
65.3% (288)
-8.2%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (165)
47.6% (210)
-2.1%
On even strength, Bergeron has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bergeron shoots right. Dowd is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (322).
Dowd shoots right. Bergeron is 59.1% vs right-shot opponents (474).
Home / Away
Dowd
Bergeron
Home
58.2% (462)
62.5% (882)
Away
49.3% (481)
61.3% (718)
By Period
Dowd
Bergeron
P1
55.6%
62.5%
P2
50.5%
62.7%
P3
53.9%
60.6%
OT
75.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
53.1%
61.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Bergeron
76.0%▲
64.5%
61.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 18:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 18:06 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 07:49 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 03:48 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Apr 10, 2022 | 1 | 04:15 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 20, 2022 | 2 | 00:58 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 3 | 13:11 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 3 | 05:37 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 2 | 19:10 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 2 | 15:40 | Defensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 2 | 02:51 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 1 | 18:34 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 1 | 12:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 1 | 12:32 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 1 | 06:02 | Offensive | Patrice Bergeron |
| Jan 10, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Patrice Bergeron |