Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Poehling 47.4% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Poehling 52.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 66.6%
Neutral zone
Poehling 57.5%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Dowd
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Dowd
Poehling
Last 8: Dowd 5-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
0
Dowd
Poehling
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
3
Dowd
Poehling
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
49.8% (626)
+1.9%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
58.3% (12)
-58.3%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
38.2% (207)
+3.4%
On power play, Poehling has a +58.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Dowd is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Dowd shoots right. Poehling is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Dowd
Poehling
Home
48.6% (451)
47.3% (404)
Away
49.5% (416)
46.9% (441)
By Period
Dowd
Poehling
P1
49.1%
53.5%
P2
47.3%
39.4%
P3
51.4%
49.1%
OT
30.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
52.1%
51.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 2 | 04:52 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 13:49 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 06:38 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 5, 2026 | 1 | 06:33 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 17:54 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 2 | 17:39 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 5, 2025 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |