Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Johnson 49.7% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Johnson leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnson 94.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 54.6%
Neutral zone
Johnson 63.0%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 70.5%
29.5%
70.5%
Dowd
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
Dowd
Johnson
Last 10: Dowd 4-6 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
5
Dowd
Johnson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
1
Dowd
Johnson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Dowd
Johnson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
49.8% (5,396)
+2.6%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
54.6% (885)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
42.3% (707)
+1.8%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Dowd shoots right. Johnson is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,203).
Home / Away
Dowd
Johnson
Home
51.9% (3,897)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Dowd
Johnson
P1
51.7%
50.1%
P2
50.4%
50.6%
P3
50.3%
48.4%
OT
45.9%
42.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 18:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 06:38 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 16:29 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 13, 2022 | 2 | 02:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 04:47 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 21, 2019 | 2 | 04:40 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 16:15 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 3, 2018 | 1 | 03:41 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 2 | 12:38 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 2 | 12:24 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 7, 2017 | 2 | 08:54 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 16, 2017 | 1 | 19:43 | Neutral | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 16, 2017 | 1 | 04:20 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |