Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.3% vs Johnson 45.7% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 91.2%
Defensive zone
Dowd 72.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 57.5%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Dowd
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Dowd
Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnson
0
1
Dowd
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Johnson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (778)
44.6% (285)
+4.6%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
46.7% (60)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (234)
16.7% (6)
+27.3%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +27.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Dowd is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Dowd shoots right. Johnson is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (78).
Home / Away
Dowd
Johnson
Home
46.3% (492)
50.8% (179)
Away
49.8% (532)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Dowd
Johnson
P1
49.1%
41.3%
P2
48.2%
41.8%
P3
46.9%
49.6%
OT
71.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
45.7%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 18:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |