Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 48.3%). Look for Johnston on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 49.1% vs Johnston 48.5% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnston 80.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 77.4%
Neutral zone
Johnston 53.3%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 57.2%
42.8%
57.2%
Dowd
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Dowd
Johnston
Last 10: Dowd 3-7 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
5
Dowd
Johnston
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
1
Dowd
Johnston
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Dowd
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (644)
47.8% (623)
+3.9%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
50.8% (63)
-50.8%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (221)
51.4% (35)
-9.8%
On power play, Johnston has a +50.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Dowd is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Dowd shoots right. Johnston is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Dowd
Johnston
Home
48.6% (451)
47.6% (351)
Away
49.5% (416)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Dowd
Johnston
P1
49.1%
49.6%
P2
47.3%
47.3%
P3
51.4%
48.0%
OT
30.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
52.1%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 09:10 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 13:37 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 05:29 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 16:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 13:55 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |