Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on offensive-zone draws (90% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 50.7% vs Johnston 49.1% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Johnston leads 11-11 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Johnston 89.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 54.9%
Neutral zone
Johnston 52.8%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 66.4%
33.6%
66.4%
Dowd
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
11
(22 meetings)
11
11
Dowd
Johnston
Last 10: Dowd 3-7 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
9
Dowd
Johnston
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
8
1
Dowd
Johnston
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
1
Dowd
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (6,009)
49.3% (2,189)
+3.1%
Power Play
56.1% (164)
52.6% (173)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (1,635)
44.7% (237)
-0.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +3.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Dowd is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (2,675).
Dowd shoots right. Johnston is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Dowd
Johnston
Home
51.9% (3,897)
49.2% (1,319)
Away
49.5% (3,912)
49.0% (1,280)
By Period
Dowd
Johnston
P1
51.7%
50.1%
P2
50.4%
48.3%
P3
50.3%
48.8%
OT
45.9%
51.6%
Final 5 min
50.5%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 09:10 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Mar 10, 2026 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 7, 2026 | 3 | 13:37 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 05:29 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 01:00 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:55 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:24 | Defensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:20 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 16:41 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 13:55 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 12:27 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 3 | 13:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 03:56 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 17:59 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 13:53 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 19:17 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 14:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 14:23 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 15:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 15:39 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |