Scouting Report
Wyatt Johnston holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 48.3% vs Johnston 50.1% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 89.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 61.5%
Neutral zone
Johnston 51.8%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 62.4%
37.6%
62.4%
Dowd
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Dowd
Johnston
Last 7: Dowd 4-3 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
3
Dowd
Johnston
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
3
0
Dowd
Johnston
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (778)
50.7% (552)
-1.5%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
61.5% (13)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (234)
43.5% (69)
+0.5%
On power play, Johnston has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Dowd is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Dowd shoots right. Johnston is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Dowd
Johnston
Home
46.3% (492)
50.3% (342)
Away
49.8% (532)
50.0% (292)
By Period
Dowd
Johnston
P1
49.1%
54.4%
P2
48.2%
47.2%
P3
46.9%
49.4%
OT
71.4%
40.0%
Final 5 min
45.7%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 19:17 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 3 | 14:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 14:23 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 15:43 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 15:39 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 15:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 06:16 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |