Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.4% vs Bjugstad 49.1% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 50.4%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 65.4%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 59.1%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Larkin
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Larkin
Bjugstad
Last 6: Larkin 2-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Larkin
Bjugstad
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Larkin
Bjugstad
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
0
1
Larkin
Bjugstad
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (878)
48.9% (280)
+2.8%
Power Play
58.5% (246)
50.0% (6)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (166)
47.2% (36)
+1.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Larkin is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Larkin shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Larkin
Bjugstad
Home
52.4% (647)
48.4% (190)
Away
52.7% (643)
49.2% (132)
By Period
Larkin
Bjugstad
P1
52.2%
41.7%
P2
53.1%
56.6%
P3
51.7%
48.7%
OT
61.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.2%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.6%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 19:58 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 04:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 04:38 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 03:15 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |