Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.9% vs Paul 52.9% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 78.1%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 54.1%
Neutral zone
Paul 53.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 59.1%
40.9%
59.1%
Bjugstad
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Bjugstad
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Bjugstad
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (212)
53.1% (277)
-2.2%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
58.7% (46)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (34)
51.7% (29)
-7.6%
On power play, Paul has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (202).
Bjugstad shoots right. Paul is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (103).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Paul
Home
52.3% (151)
52.9% (155)
Away
46.0% (100)
54.3% (197)
By Period
Bjugstad
Paul
P1
44.9%
55.6%
P2
56.8%
56.7%
P3
48.3%
50.8%
OT
33.3%
20.0%
Final 5 min
48.4%
59.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
44.0%▼
49.0%
49.8%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.5%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | OT | 00:58 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 13:18 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 09:59 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |