Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.1% vs Paul 53.3% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 83.5%
Defensive zone
Paul 57.4%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 66.2%
33.8%
66.2%
Bjugstad
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Bjugstad
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Bjugstad
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (280)
53.2% (327)
-4.3%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
61.4% (57)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
50.0% (32)
-2.8%
On power play, Paul has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Bjugstad shoots right. Paul is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (113).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Paul
Home
48.4% (190)
54.6% (183)
Away
49.2% (132)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Bjugstad
Paul
P1
41.7%
56.3%
P2
56.6%
54.8%
P3
48.7%
52.4%
OT
33.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
51.2%
59.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | OT | 00:58 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 13:18 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 09:59 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |