Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Brown on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bjugstad wins 41.3% vs right-shot opponents — Brown shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.0% vs Brown 51.9% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Brown 60.5%
Defensive zone
Brown 51.7%
Neutral zone
Brown 57.8%
Result
Patrick Brown favored at 55.3%
44.7%
55.3%
Bjugstad
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Bjugstad
Brown
Last 5: Bjugstad 3-2 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
0
Bjugstad
Brown
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brown
1
2
Bjugstad
Brown
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (867)
52.8% (284)
-3.4%
Power Play
56.0% (25)
75.0% (4)
-19.0%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (216)
49.0% (51)
-8.3%
On power play, Brown has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Bjugstad is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (312).
Bjugstad shoots right. Brown is 48.0% vs right-shot opponents (102).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Brown
Home
46.5% (480)
53.5% (144)
Away
48.9% (628)
51.8% (195)
By Period
Bjugstad
Brown
P1
48.7%
49.0%
P2
45.6%
48.7%
P3
49.1%
58.6%
Final 5 min
45.0%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 08:53 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 01:30 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 04:36 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |