Scouting Report
Patrick Brown holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Brown on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bjugstad wins 45.3% vs right-shot opponents — Brown shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.9% vs Brown 54.6% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 75.4%
Defensive zone
Brown 66.1%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 52.1%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 53.5%
53.5%
46.5%
Bjugstad
Brown
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Bjugstad
Brown
Last 7: Bjugstad 3-4 Brown
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Brown
0
2
Bjugstad
Brown
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
2
0
Bjugstad
Brown
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Brown
1
2
Bjugstad
Brown
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Brown
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,634)
56.5% (726)
-7.9%
Power Play
55.2% (829)
62.5% (8)
-7.3%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (614)
47.8% (136)
-3.5%
On even strength, Brown has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Brown shoots right. Bjugstad is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,330).
Bjugstad shoots right. Brown is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Brown
Home
49.8% (4,020)
57.4% (364)
Away
48.1% (4,057)
53.6% (506)
By Period
Bjugstad
Brown
P1
49.0%
51.4%
P2
49.1%
54.6%
P3
48.4%
58.8%
OT
61.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.3%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Brown
44.0%▼
48.5%
55.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Jan 5, 2023 | 2 | 08:53 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 01:39 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 3 | 01:30 | Neutral | Patrick Brown |
| Dec 11, 2022 | 1 | 04:36 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 2 | 10:01 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |
| Mar 21, 2017 | 1 | 18:57 | Offensive | Patrick Brown |