Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.1% vs Zacha 51.7% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 51.4%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 54.6%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 56.1%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Bjugstad
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Bjugstad
Zacha
Last 5: Bjugstad 2-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bjugstad
Zacha
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
2
Bjugstad
Zacha
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (280)
53.3% (646)
-4.4%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
53.0% (100)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
38.9% (72)
+8.3%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Bjugstad shoots right. Zacha is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Zacha
Home
48.4% (190)
51.7% (410)
Away
49.2% (132)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Bjugstad
Zacha
P1
41.7%
57.7%
P2
56.6%
48.9%
P3
48.7%
50.2%
OT
33.3%
35.7%
Final 5 min
51.2%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 05:15 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 3 | 02:20 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 08:08 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 2 | 05:29 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |