Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 47.9% vs Zacha 52.8% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 54.1%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 68.8%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 53.7%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 57.0%
57.0%
43.0%
Bjugstad
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Bjugstad
Zacha
Last 5: Bjugstad 2-3 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
3
Bjugstad
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Zacha
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (398)
54.1% (534)
-7.4%
Power Play
51.6% (31)
56.0% (109)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (8)
44.8% (96)
+17.7%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (323).
Bjugstad shoots right. Zacha is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Zacha
Home
47.3% (220)
53.4% (406)
Away
47.5% (217)
52.9% (333)
By Period
Bjugstad
Zacha
P1
46.1%
56.8%
P2
46.3%
53.6%
P3
50.4%
49.2%
Final 5 min
46.7%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
47.4%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 09:08 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 06:41 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 03:59 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 14:19 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 1 | 04:34 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |