Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.8% vs 50.6%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.9% vs Steel 50.4% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 60.6%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 63.6%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 53.2%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 51.5%
51.5%
48.5%
Bjugstad
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Bjugstad
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
Bjugstad
Steel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (212)
51.3% (195)
-0.4%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
71.4% (7)
-31.4%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (34)
43.2% (37)
+0.9%
On power play, Steel has a +31.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (202).
Bjugstad shoots right. Steel is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Steel
Home
52.3% (151)
50.0% (100)
Away
46.0% (100)
51.1% (139)
By Period
Bjugstad
Steel
P1
44.9%
49.4%
P2
56.8%
48.1%
P3
48.3%
55.9%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
48.4%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
44.0%▼
49.0%
49.8%
Steel
46.0%▼
48.5%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |