Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.1% vs Steel 50.6% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Steel 58.4%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 58.3%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 52.4%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 50.1%
49.9%
50.1%
Bjugstad
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Bjugstad
Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
0
1
Bjugstad
Steel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Steel
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (280)
52.5% (200)
-3.6%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
71.4% (7)
-21.4%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
40.0% (45)
+7.2%
On power play, Steel has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Bjugstad shoots right. Steel is 46.2% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Steel
Home
48.4% (190)
49.5% (109)
Away
49.2% (132)
51.7% (143)
By Period
Bjugstad
Steel
P1
41.7%
49.5%
P2
56.6%
47.5%
P3
48.7%
56.6%
OT
33.3%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |