Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Steel on offensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.9% vs Steel 50.2% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Steel leads 19-10 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 60.0%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 68.5%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 59.1%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 60.8%
60.8%
39.2%
Bjugstad
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
19
(29 meetings)
10
19
Bjugstad
Steel
Last 10: Bjugstad 5-5 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Steel
3
10
Bjugstad
Steel
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Steel
1
3
Bjugstad
Steel
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
6
6
Bjugstad
Steel
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,634)
50.6% (2,876)
-2.0%
Power Play
55.2% (829)
62.6% (179)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (614)
37.4% (254)
+6.9%
On power play, Steel has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Bjugstad shoots right. Steel is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,237).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Steel
Home
49.8% (4,020)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
48.1% (4,057)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Bjugstad
Steel
P1
49.0%
51.9%
P2
49.1%
49.5%
P3
48.4%
49.6%
OT
61.3%
41.9%
Final 5 min
47.3%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 04:35 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 01:20 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 2 | 15:35 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 2, 2024 | 2 | 07:07 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 17:43 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Mar 20, 2024 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 3 | 09:49 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 3 | 09:35 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 3 | 09:28 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 2 | 19:24 | Defensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 2 | 07:29 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 6, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 09:54 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 02:04 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 2 | 17:23 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Nov 27, 2022 | 2 | 12:52 | Offensive | Sam Steel |