Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Bjugstad wins 41.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johnston shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.0% vs Johnston 44.8% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 69.0%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 61.9%
Neutral zone
Johnston 52.9%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Bjugstad
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Bjugstad
Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
2
Bjugstad
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (867)
42.5% (318)
+6.9%
Power Play
56.0% (25)
55.6% (9)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
40.7% (216)
62.5% (8)
-21.8%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +21.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Bjugstad is 41.3% vs right-shot opponents (312).
Bjugstad shoots right. Johnston is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (106).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Johnston
Home
46.5% (480)
40.5% (168)
Away
48.9% (628)
46.1% (167)
By Period
Bjugstad
Johnston
P1
48.7%
46.9%
P2
45.6%
40.4%
P3
49.1%
41.9%
OT
50.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
45.0%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
47.8%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 13:17 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |