Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.5% vs Johnston 48.0% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnston 70.2%
Defensive zone
Johnston 50.6%
Neutral zone
Johnston 57.5%
Result
Wyatt Johnston favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Bjugstad
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Bjugstad
Johnston
Last 6: Bjugstad 2-4 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
2
Bjugstad
Johnston
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
2
Bjugstad
Johnston
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (292)
47.3% (666)
+2.4%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
50.7% (69)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
51.4% (35)
-4.2%
On penalty kill, Johnston has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Bjugstad is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (72).
Bjugstad shoots right. Johnston is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (202).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Johnston
Home
48.7% (193)
47.5% (364)
Away
50.4% (141)
48.0% (406)
By Period
Bjugstad
Johnston
P1
41.5%
49.4%
P2
57.3%
46.9%
P3
50.0%
47.1%
OT
33.3%
47.1%
Final 5 min
51.7%
46.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.4%
Johnston
40.0%▼
49.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 10:14 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 02:46 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 18:49 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 3 | 13:29 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 1 | 07:42 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 23, 2026 | 3 | 00:33 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |