Scouting Report
Nick Bjugstad holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 49.1% vs Gourde 46.0% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 52.2%
Defensive zone
Gourde 53.9%
Neutral zone
Gourde 52.0%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Bjugstad
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Bjugstad
Gourde
Last 5: Bjugstad 2-3 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bjugstad
Gourde
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
2
Bjugstad
Gourde
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
1
0
Bjugstad
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (280)
47.2% (654)
+1.7%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
45.0% (20)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (36)
32.2% (87)
+15.0%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Bjugstad is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (254).
Bjugstad shoots right. Gourde is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Gourde
Home
48.4% (190)
44.1% (322)
Away
49.2% (132)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Bjugstad
Gourde
P1
41.7%
42.4%
P2
56.6%
49.8%
P3
48.7%
44.3%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.2%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.8%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | OT | 02:53 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 17:39 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 02:08 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |