Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.9% vs 48.2%). Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bjugstad 48.9% vs Gourde 48.2% (+0.7%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Bjugstad 54.7%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 51.8%
Neutral zone
Bjugstad 50.0%
Result
Nick Bjugstad favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Bjugstad
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
10
(20 meetings)
10
10
Bjugstad
Gourde
Last 10: Bjugstad 4-6 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
4
6
Bjugstad
Gourde
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bjugstad
4
2
Bjugstad
Gourde
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Bjugstad
Gourde
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bjugstad
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (6,634)
48.4% (4,954)
+0.2%
Power Play
55.2% (829)
57.4% (376)
-2.2%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (614)
39.9% (554)
+4.4%
On penalty kill, Bjugstad has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Bjugstad is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,747).
Bjugstad shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,937).
Home / Away
Bjugstad
Gourde
Home
49.8% (4,020)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
48.1% (4,057)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Bjugstad
Gourde
P1
49.0%
49.9%
P2
49.1%
47.4%
P3
48.4%
47.5%
OT
61.3%
37.0%
Final 5 min
47.3%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
48.9%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | OT | 02:53 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 17:39 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 06:29 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 05:35 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Jan 16, 2026 | 2 | 02:08 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 09:21 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 04:57 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 14:30 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 11:09 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 03:04 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 09:14 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 3 | 00:51 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 03:06 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 1 | 02:53 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 6, 2018 | 3 | 02:42 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 30, 2017 | 2 | 03:29 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |