Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.7% vs left-shot opponents — Bonino shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Bonino 48.1% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 93.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 61.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 81.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 83.4%
83.4%
16.6%
Pavelski
Bonino
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Pavelski
Bonino
Last 8: Pavelski 7-1 Bonino
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Bonino
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
0
1
Pavelski
Bonino
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Bonino
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Bonino
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (643)
48.7% (917)
+2.6%
Power Play
58.1% (172)
53.2% (94)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (41)
42.1% (202)
+4.2%
On power play, Pavelski has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bonino shoots left. Pavelski is 53.7% vs left-shot opponents (657).
Pavelski shoots right. Bonino is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (432).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Bonino
Home
53.8% (431)
51.0% (629)
Away
51.1% (425)
44.7% (584)
By Period
Pavelski
Bonino
P1
48.4%
49.0%
P2
52.0%
45.4%
P3
55.6%
50.2%
OT
80.0%
23.1%
Final 5 min
51.6%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2016 | 2 | 16:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 2 | 03:57 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 2 | 02:33 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2016 | 2 | 00:13 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 3 | 04:10 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 2 | 18:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 1 | 09:22 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 20, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |