Scouting Report
Nick Bonino holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Bonino on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Bonino wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bonino 52.3% vs Carpenter 44.1% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 88.5%
Defensive zone
Bonino 82.5%
Neutral zone
Bonino 79.7%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 85.0%
85.0%
15.0%
Bonino
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Bonino
Carpenter
Last 6: Bonino 5-1 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
3
0
Bonino
Carpenter
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bonino
Carpenter
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bonino
1
0
Bonino
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bonino
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
52.0% (717)
46.2% (474)
+5.8%
Power Play
62.7% (67)
28.6% (7)
+34.1%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (144)
32.6% (129)
+18.1%
On power play, Bonino has a +34.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Bonino is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (381).
Bonino shoots left. Carpenter is 41.3% vs left-shot opponents (467).
Home / Away
Bonino
Carpenter
Home
54.8% (429)
46.5% (303)
Away
50.7% (499)
39.7% (307)
By Period
Bonino
Carpenter
P1
53.5%
44.2%
P2
49.5%
40.4%
P3
54.8%
44.2%
OT
45.5%
57.1%
Final 5 min
47.9%
48.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
52.6%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 17:28 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 07:48 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 2 | 05:17 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 2 | 04:35 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Oct 29, 2019 | 1 | 17:17 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |