Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.4% vs 51.5%). Bonino wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bonino 51.2% vs Carpenter 51.2% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 62.7%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 52.0%
Neutral zone
Bonino 51.4%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Bonino
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Bonino
Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bonino
Carpenter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
1
0
Bonino
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bonino
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (777)
53.2% (299)
-1.5%
Power Play
60.0% (50)
33.3% (3)
+26.7%
Penalty Kill
43.9% (98)
46.5% (86)
-2.6%
On power play, Bonino has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Bonino is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Bonino shoots left. Carpenter is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Bonino
Carpenter
Home
48.2% (461)
54.6% (207)
Away
54.5% (464)
48.1% (181)
By Period
Bonino
Carpenter
P1
54.1%
52.3%
P2
49.7%
51.5%
P3
50.7%
50.8%
Final 5 min
50.6%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.4%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2022 | 1 | 05:40 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 1 | 03:17 | Offensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 28, 2021 | 1 | 15:01 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |