Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Bonino on defensive-zone draws (76% H2H, 66 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bonino 50.0% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Bonino leads 74-65 in 139 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 82.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 60.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 71.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 70.3%
29.7%
70.3%
Bonino
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
74
-
65
(139 meetings)
74
65
Bonino
O'Reilly
Last 10: Bonino 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
17
38
Bonino
O'Reilly
55 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
50
16
Bonino
O'Reilly
66 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
7
11
Bonino
O'Reilly
18 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bonino
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.6% (8,315)
56.2% (15,260)
-5.6%
Power Play
54.1% (972)
58.8% (3,445)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (1,693)
51.4% (2,811)
-6.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bonino is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (6,917).
Bonino shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Bonino
O'Reilly
Home
51.2% (5,507)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
48.8% (5,480)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Bonino
O'Reilly
P1
50.6%
55.6%
P2
48.5%
57.0%
P3
51.1%
55.1%
OT
45.7%
62.2%
Final 5 min
50.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
50.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 19:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 15:14 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 2 | 11:14 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 3 | 14:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 1 | 09:38 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 13, 2021 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| May 13, 2021 | 3 | 05:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 13, 2021 | 3 | 04:42 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| May 13, 2021 | 2 | 13:00 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| May 13, 2021 | 1 | 12:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 09:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 19:07 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 05:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 11:57 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 11:42 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 3 | 19:46 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 3 | 19:37 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 2 | 10:19 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |