Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bonino 50.8% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 83.1%
Defensive zone
Bonino 80.4%
Neutral zone
Bonino 51.8%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Bonino
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Bonino
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Bonino
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bonino
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (305)
55.0% (1,084)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
48.5% (101)
40.3% (149)
+8.2%
On penalty kill, Bonino has a +8.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bonino is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Bonino shoots left. O'Reilly is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (981).
Home / Away
Bonino
O'Reilly
Home
53.1% (177)
54.8% (759)
Away
49.3% (229)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Bonino
O'Reilly
P1
55.9%
55.3%
P2
49.6%
51.9%
P3
47.6%
54.2%
OT
100.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
42.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 19:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 15:14 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |