Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Bonino on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bonino 52.5% vs O'Reilly 58.1% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Bonino leads 18-10 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 94.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 74.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 85.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 81.4%
18.6%
81.4%
Bonino
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
10
(28 meetings)
18
10
Bonino
O'Reilly
Last 10: Bonino 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
6
Bonino
O'Reilly
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bonino
14
2
Bonino
O'Reilly
16 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Bonino
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bonino
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (395)
58.6% (841)
-3.7%
Power Play
60.9% (110)
59.9% (207)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (186)
58.1% (148)
-14.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +14.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Bonino is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (469).
Bonino shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Home / Away
Bonino
O'Reilly
Home
52.3% (363)
59.8% (594)
Away
53.4% (328)
57.8% (602)
By Period
Bonino
O'Reilly
P1
52.0%
61.7%
P2
56.1%
56.2%
P3
51.5%
59.5%
OT
25.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
52.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2021 | 3 | 08:32 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| May 13, 2021 | 3 | 05:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 13, 2021 | 3 | 04:42 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| May 13, 2021 | 2 | 13:00 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| May 13, 2021 | 1 | 12:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 12, 2021 | 1 | 09:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| May 1, 2021 | 1 | 19:07 | Offensive | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 05:08 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 11:57 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 11:42 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 3 | 19:46 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 3 | 19:37 | Neutral | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 2 | 10:19 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 12:27 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 09:39 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 09:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 09:12 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |