Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bonino 50.8% vs Hertl 56.8% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bonino 65.2%
Defensive zone
Bonino 89.7%
Neutral zone
Bonino 76.2%
Result
Nick Bonino favored at 77.3%
77.3%
22.7%
Bonino
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Bonino
Hertl
Last 7: Bonino 1-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
3
Bonino
Hertl
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
2
Bonino
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Bonino
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bonino
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (305)
57.0% (718)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
48.5% (101)
44.2% (77)
+4.3%
On even strength, Hertl has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Bonino is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (253).
Bonino shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Bonino
Hertl
Home
53.1% (177)
59.2% (463)
Away
49.3% (229)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Bonino
Hertl
P1
55.9%
56.3%
P2
49.6%
55.4%
P3
47.6%
60.5%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bonino
46.0%▼
47.5%
51.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 19:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2023 | 3 | 18:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2023 | 3 | 17:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2023 | 3 | 05:51 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2023 | 2 | 15:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 3, 2023 | 1 | 13:52 | Defensive | Nick Bonino |