Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Staal on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Staal wins 57.4% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 57.6% vs Foligno 52.0% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 61.5%
Defensive zone
Staal 92.0%
Neutral zone
Staal 71.2%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 92.0%
92.0%
8.0%
Staal
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Staal
Foligno
Last 5: Staal 4-1 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Staal
4
1
Staal
Foligno
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
58.9% (1,096)
53.4% (249)
+5.5%
Power Play
68.4% (57)
53.2% (154)
+15.2%
Penalty Kill
51.8% (222)
40.6% (32)
+11.2%
On power play, Staal has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Staal is 57.4% vs left-shot opponents (986).
Staal shoots left. Foligno is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Staal
Foligno
Home
57.0% (646)
57.3% (225)
Away
59.1% (729)
47.1% (210)
By Period
Staal
Foligno
P1
55.9%
53.0%
P2
55.4%
51.8%
P3
62.0%
52.6%
Final 5 min
63.1%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
58.1%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 06:36 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 08:03 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 06:20 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 14:36 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 03:45 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |