Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 49.9% vs Foligno 48.6% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 63.6%
Defensive zone
Foligno 74.1%
Neutral zone
Foligno 58.7%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 60.4%
39.6%
60.4%
MacKinnon
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
MacKinnon
Foligno
Last 5: MacKinnon 1-4 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
MacKinnon
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
2
MacKinnon
Foligno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (1,266)
48.7% (495)
+0.5%
Power Play
54.9% (193)
56.9% (65)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (55)
43.8% (144)
+5.3%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
MacKinnon shoots right. Foligno is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (198).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Foligno
Home
50.9% (740)
49.6% (359)
Away
49.0% (774)
47.2% (345)
By Period
MacKinnon
Foligno
P1
50.9%
46.7%
P2
51.8%
52.7%
P3
47.1%
46.7%
OT
58.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.2%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 18:23 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 03:55 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 19:02 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 19:17 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 13:31 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |