Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Foligno 52.0% vs Johnston 50.1% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 78.9%
Defensive zone
Johnston 72.7%
Neutral zone
Foligno 55.1%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 63.8%
63.8%
36.2%
Foligno
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Foligno
Johnston
Last 5: Foligno 3-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
1
Foligno
Johnston
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
0
Foligno
Johnston
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johnston
0
1
Foligno
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Foligno
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (249)
50.7% (552)
+2.7%
Power Play
53.2% (154)
61.5% (13)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (32)
43.5% (69)
-2.9%
On power play, Johnston has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Foligno is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Foligno shoots left. Johnston is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (498).
Home / Away
Foligno
Johnston
Home
57.3% (225)
50.3% (342)
Away
47.1% (210)
50.0% (292)
By Period
Foligno
Johnston
P1
53.0%
54.4%
P2
51.8%
47.2%
P3
52.6%
49.4%
Final 5 min
53.3%
47.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
52.4%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 12:22 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 03:42 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 05:10 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |