Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.9% vs 52.1%). Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 51.7% vs Paul 51.7% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Matthews 70.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 68.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 52.9%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 54.4%
54.4%
45.6%
Matthews
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
13
(22 meetings)
9
13
Matthews
Paul
Last 10: Matthews 2-8 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Matthews
Paul
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Matthews
Paul
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
4
5
Matthews
Paul
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (795)
56.2% (274)
-4.0%
Power Play
52.5% (40)
52.9% (17)
-0.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (32)
43.4% (129)
+0.4%
On even strength, Paul has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Matthews is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Matthews shoots left. Paul is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (283).
Home / Away
Matthews
Paul
Home
53.5% (454)
52.3% (235)
Away
50.1% (413)
51.9% (185)
By Period
Matthews
Paul
P1
54.8%
53.2%
P2
52.2%
53.8%
P3
48.1%
49.3%
OT
57.1%
55.6%
Final 5 min
54.1%
53.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
51.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 16:47 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| May 12, 2021 | 2 | 01:44 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 19:16 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 25, 2021 | OT | 03:36 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 25, 2021 | OT | 01:14 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 3 | 14:53 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 3 | 08:15 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 13:59 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 14:20 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 07:09 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 00:32 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 2 | 04:32 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 15, 2021 | OT | 01:54 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 08:34 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 2 | 09:58 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 1 | 19:48 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 16, 2021 | 3 | 14:43 | Defensive | Nick Paul |