Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 52.2% vs Paul 53.4% (-1.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 73.2%
Defensive zone
Paul 63.8%
Neutral zone
Matthews 52.8%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Matthews
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Matthews
Paul
Last 8: Matthews 2-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Matthews
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Matthews
Paul
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
52.7% (1,015)
53.8% (753)
-1.1%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
58.9% (90)
-24.3%
Penalty Kill
75.0% (8)
47.4% (78)
+27.6%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +27.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Matthews is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (661).
Matthews shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Matthews
Paul
Home
54.8% (515)
54.2% (450)
Away
50.2% (534)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Matthews
Paul
P1
54.4%
58.2%
P2
50.4%
50.6%
P3
51.8%
52.9%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
53.7%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 04:09 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 20, 2022 | 1 | 12:14 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 19:28 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 3 | 05:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 19:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 3, 2022 | 2 | 01:36 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |