Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (70% H2H, 20 meetings). Matthews wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.9% vs Paul 52.2% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 35-21 in 56 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 59.0%
Defensive zone
Paul 82.0%
Neutral zone
Paul 72.3%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 69.5%
30.5%
69.5%
Matthews
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
21
-
35
(56 meetings)
21
35
Matthews
Paul
Last 10: Matthews 3-7 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
11
11
Matthews
Paul
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
4
10
Matthews
Paul
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
6
14
Matthews
Paul
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (9,298)
52.5% (3,796)
+1.5%
Power Play
55.5% (530)
56.5% (480)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
49.8% (482)
46.7% (574)
+3.1%
On penalty kill, Matthews has a +3.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Matthews is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (6,605).
Matthews shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Matthews
Paul
Home
56.3% (5,065)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
51.5% (5,245)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Matthews
Paul
P1
55.5%
53.9%
P2
53.3%
51.0%
P3
52.8%
52.0%
OT
56.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.1%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 13:38 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 01:27 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 15:33 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 11:02 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 3 | 16:31 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:35 | Defensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 18:56 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 14:59 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 3, 2024 | 1 | 10:39 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 2 | 17:21 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 07:30 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 10:31 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 02:42 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 07:51 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 03:06 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |